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Tiger (Panthera tigris Linn.) remain among the most threatened large carnivores world wide, having lost over 90% of their historical range during the last century. While India today supports more than 70% of the global population, maintaining viable tiger populations in human-dominated landscapes requires robust monitoring of habitat use and distribution. Madhya Pradesh, known as the “Tiger State,” represents the single most important stronghold for tigers globally, yet there has been limited systematic research evaluating occupancy patterns across its entire forested extent using detection-corrected models.
The present study is the results of a large-scale occupancy analysis based on the 2022 cycle of the All India Tiger Estimation (AITE). A total of 106,700 km² of forest habitat into 1,067 10×10 km grids were stratified, using replicated sign-based surveys to compile detection–non detection data. Occupancy models were developed in PRESENCE v2.15.9, incorporating climatic, ecological, and anthropogenic covariates. In the Vindhyan landscape, tigers were detected in 172 of 654 grids, with a naïve occupancy estimate of 0.26 (17,194 km²). Occupancy was positively associated with precipitation, prey diversity, and proximity to water, but negatively influenced by high maximum temperatures. In Satpura–Maikal, detections occurred in 155 of 413 grids, yielding a naïve occupancy of 0.38 (15,599 km²), with forest cover and precipitation as key drivers. At the state scale, naïve occupancy was 0.31 (33,077 km²), while detection-corrected occupancy was 0.35 (37,345 km²). The present findings emphasize the critical role of forest cover, water, and prey in sustaining tiger occupancy, while human footprint exerts variable impacts across landscapes. With habitat nearly saturated, conservation priorities include maintaining corridors, safeguarding water, ensuring prey availability, and fostering human coexistence strategies. This study provides the first comprehensive, landscape-specific assessment of tiger occupancy across Madhya Pradesh, offering a robust framework for conservation planning in central India.
Central India, human footprint, landscape ecology, occupancy modelling, PRESENCE, prey diversity, tiger conservation
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